Econometric Evaluation of Micro Factors of Seasonality on Revenues, Price, Sales and Farmers Work-Occupation: Case of Apple And Tomato on the Regions of Prizren, Lushnja, and Kor

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the importance of effects and impact of seasonal fluctuations on income of farmers, work-occupation in farm and sales on apples activity for areas of Korça and Prizren , and in tomatos activities for areas Lushnja and Prizren. Lushnja area is one of the most popular areas of Albania on the quality of vegetable production. Seasonal effects that influence on the apples production in areas of Korça and Prizren and tomatos in areas of Lushnja and Prizren. Some seasonal effects comes as a result of weather conditions, pests and diseases, and are more expressed in those economic phenomenon such us: the volatility of price over year, to farmers income and to farmers work-occupation over a year. We also can say that the production of apples and tomatos in our country includes more intensive activities of production that require large investments. Their production cost turns out to be higher for manufacturers, but, while also enabling high levels of profit. Our estimates are based on data obtained from surveys, for 300 farmers, to make our evaluations we build some econometric models. In this paper we have used the model of seasonal indexes, where seasonal variation can be measured in terms of an index called the seasonal index. We have used these methods: seasonal indexes standard deviations, and econometric modeling. Also we have defined indicators and values of the variations coefficient. The variations coefficient is a relative indicator which expresses the ratio between to standard deviation size and arithmetic average of mass phenomenon.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2017.v8n3p351