Importance of Poverty Levels in Regime Change

Abstract

The wave of democratization of the Nineties may be coming to an end, non democratic regimes are becoming attractive because they have had better performance. Venezuela, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Thailand, Pakistan, Gambia, Madagascar and Mozambique are countries that were democratic in 1990, but they already had other type of regime in 2010. Through analysing economic variables, non democratic countries had had lower inequality levels, higher rates of economic growth, but higher poverty levels. Through analysing political variables, democratic countries had had higher polarization levels from 1990 to 2010. Through analysing democratic countries that changed their regime from 1990 to 2010 and through analysing changes in some economic, political and social variables, it was found that the polarization levels were relevant for changing regime from 1990 to 2000, while poverty levels were relevant for changing regime from 2000 to 2010. This hypothesis is supported with six statistical models that use ivprobit. As conclusion, democratic countries that do not reduce poverty levels may be at risk of change regime.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2017.v8n2p267