Housing Demand in Turkey: Application of Grey Forecasting Model

Abstract

One of the physiological needs of people is housing. The housing market is the market that meets this need and has a special place in the national economy. "Multiplier - accelerating" effect owned by housing sector, "economic - social" it includes and the experience of the global crisis in 2008 has made the sector the locomotive of economic development. Any movement formed in the housing sector identified as the driving force of economic growth also affects other sectors in a positive way. That being influenced of financial stability by housing sector both in direct and indirect way also took place among the reasons of global crisis in this sense and it is in a quality that may pose systemic risk require being monitored of supply demand indicators related to the system and making predictions for the future. In Turkey that is among the fastest growing economies in the world in recent years, housing sector showed quite strong performance. By making 1.165.381 house sales in Turkey in 2014 with an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous year, it was reached to the historical levels, while there was an increase of 173% in house sales between the years of 2008-2014. In this study, by using the house sales data in Turkey between the years of 2008-2014 in Turkey with Grey Forecasting model and Grey Verhulst model, it was made predictions for the future and these values were compared with actual data.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2016.v7n2p52