Long-term Forecasting of the Number of Labor Pensioners in the Region

Abstract

In the article the methodological foundations of long-term forecasting of the pensioner number, based on the method of advancing age are analyzed. Scientific novelty of the rese arch is an approach to the assessment of the future number of pensioners, taking into account the regional dimension, which allows taking into consideration the territorial features of the socio-economic and demographic development of the Russian Federation. Demographic methods of forecasting, especially mortality tables used in actuarial practice are analyzed. According to the results of the demographic processes’ study of a particular region the models of age-specific mortality and table the disposal of the working-age population are constructed which formed the basis of the forecast of the pensioner number by types of pensions up to 2030. According to the study of regional demographic processes the models of age-specific mortality table and disposal of the working population were built, that served as the basis for the development of the forecast number of pensioners by type of retirement pensions until 2030. The age structure of pension recipients for age and gender is developed with five-year cohorts to estimate the potential number of working pensioners. The causes of the future pensioner structure changes are determined. The forecast of the number of old-age pensioners in the total population of the region is represented, if the retirement age is increased. This study allows developing and planning the pension policy to maintain a decent standard of living for pensioners.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n3s7p351