Comparative Analysis and Forecast of the Housing Dynamics in the Volga District Regions

Abstract

Necessary condition of steady functioning of housing branch in the Volga district regions is existence of the warning information promoting adoption of the reasonable timely decisions directed on elimination of the reasons of the possible negative phenomena and stabilization of housing market development. Carrying out the comparative analysis of a condition of the Volga district Republics housing sector allows to reveal the existing tendencies of development and to plan further prospects. The role of the forecasts allowing to expect further dynamics of the studied phenomenon increases in a modern economic situation. Application of the adaptive methods of forecasting allowing to consider not the average level of process, but the tendency which developed by the time of the last supervision allows to receive forecast values of further housing dynamics on the near-term outlook. In real data often there are no distinctly expressed regular components. Separate supervisions contain a considerable mistake whereas it is necessary not only to pick out regular components, but also to construct the forecast. Dynamic series of housing branch are subjected to seasonal effect in connection with reindexation of construction cost in each next reporting year that indicates on necessity of seasonal effect researching. The methodology of autoregression and integrated moving average (ARIMA) allows to consider the specified conditions. This method is extremely popular in many appendices, and practice confirms its power and flexibility. The complex of the forecast models offered in this research can be useful during the planning of regions housing branch, efficiency and an optimality of further development.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n3s7p317