Analysis of the State of Elementary School Student Population of East Azerbaijan during 2006-2016 and Predictions of Space and Educational Staff Required in this Field

Abstract

Evaluation of population structure provides the possibility of predicting and estimating of requirements of human resources. Obviously, it will be impossible predict of future requirements if no exact knowledge of the characteristics of the population. Therefore the present study analyzes the primary student population of East Azerbaijan and predicts its’ required space and educational staff in the next five years. The purpose of this research is applied and the type of data gathering in this study is a descriptive – analytical one. The statistical population of this study includes the total student population and expert human resources in East Azerbaijan primary education. Research tools are to refer to the Department of Education of the province and library study by using statistics and necessary information and also study of Statistical Yearbook and census results. Statistical methods of this research are: Population prediction using calculation the survival rate, Johnston formula and the rate’s morality and migration of school-age population, predictions of schools enrollment rates in local-scale and estimate of required space and educational staff in the next five years in the next five years according to provincial standards. The results of this study showed that the number of primary school students in the 2016 school years compared to1390-1391 school years will increase by 4/63 percent. And consequently, the need for classrooms, educational spaces, an expert (teacher) and educational staff in the next five years will increase.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n16p273